Maintain the current source
Lower near-term effort, with continued concentration.
See the decision flow.
This short walkthrough explains the same critical-material case used in the Decision Lab. Open the Decision Lab when you are ready to edit the case and create a decision record.
Which source-qualification pathway should advance?
The decision owner must choose a practical next step while the future remains uncertain.
Readiness, continuity, affordability, and flexibility.
Each goal has a visible good-enough line. The goals remain separate so one favorable number cannot hide a trade-off.
Method terms
A goal used in the comparison may be called a measure. Its good-enough line may be called a threshold.
Three actions the program can take.
Qualify a second source
Add optionality through a bounded qualification effort.
Build a reserve and qualify
Add near-term coverage while qualification proceeds.
Use several conditions, not one forecast.
Stable demand and source performance
Qualification takes longer
Primary-source disruption
Budget remains constrained
Every choice is compared against the same four futures. No probability is assigned.
Choose what advances and explain why.
The comparison may identify one choice as the strongest alignment under the stated rules. The decision owner still reviews the evidence, accepts or rejects the result, and records the next action.